2018 POLLS SHOW SPANIARDS OPEN TO CENTRIST CHANGE - Soul 2 Soul Mates Blog

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4/02/2018

2018 POLLS SHOW SPANIARDS OPEN TO CENTRIST CHANGE

2018 POLLS SHOW SPANIARDS OPEN TO CENTRIST CHANGE
The rise of Ciudadanos suggests a coalition with the PSOE might be equally appealing as one with the PP.
The first quarter of 2018 ended with a three-way tie for first place in Spanish politics, with Podemos lagging fourth in all 25 polls published during the first three months of the year.
April's first poll (Sociométrica in El Español, on Sunday), along with the last one of March (Sigma Dos in El Mundo, on Saturday), was no different, although over the past three weeks or so Ciudadanos has begun to untangle itself from the survey spaghetti.
As Albert Rivera's party inches its way towards the 30% mark, both the governing Popular Party (PP) and the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) continued to inch downwards.
The PP scored as low as 20% in one poll in the middle of March and three polls that same month put the PSOE at below the 20% mark.






Every poll was clear about fourth place for Podemos, whose average for the quarter, and for the last 10 polls, was below 17%.
Were those last 10 polls to be the result of a general election, Ciudadanos would have increased its share of the vote by more than 13%, with falls for the other parties: -1.49% for the PSOE, -4.49% for Podemos and -9.87% for the PP.
Coalition Dynamics With Ciudadanos Rising
The last general election in July 2016 produced a hung parliament that eventually allowed for a minority government led by Mariano Rajoy (PP), with parliamentary support from Ciudadanos and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV).
The polls show all parties are still far from the 44% of the vote needed in Spanish politics for an overall majority in Congress, the lower house of parliament.
Compared to that last general election, though, this year's polls so far show Spaniards are increasingly ready for centrist change, not radical confrontation.
The two younger parties, Ciudadanos and Podemos, are now equally if not more favoured—at around 45% of the vote—than the two traditional parties, the PP and the PSOE.
The right-wing combination of the Popular Party and Ciudadanos remains steady at around 50% of the vote, while the left-wing combination of the PSOE and Podemos continues to fall, now approaching 35%.






The rise of Ciudadanos (mostly generating a loss of voters for the Popular Party) means a coalition with the Socialist Party (PSOE)—an idea Albert Rivera and Pedro Sánchez explored in earnest before the last general election—is also now back on the cards, coming in at a combined 45% of the vote.
That 45% Ciudadanos-PSOE combination, a rising trend from 35% at the last general election, compares more favourably to the alternate PP-Podemos number, falling from 55% at the last election down past 40% in the first quarter of 2016.
The key is Ciudadanos, which, the polls seem to be saying, represents a change from the old guard and a bet against the more extreme ends of Spanish politics.




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